Additionally, it was encouraging to see a small increase in the length of the work week, which usually serves as a leading indicator of future employment growth.
These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
The prospects of 4 percent real GDP growth (or possibly more after future data revisions) during the third quarter are back on the table,
The prospects of 4 percent real GDP growth (or possibly more after future data revisions) during the third quarter are back on the table.
These numbers give the Fed license to cut rates as much as necessary.
These numbers give us an indication of the trend, and the trend is still telling us we're in improvement mode, not in breakout mode, where job growth is surging,
These numbers give us an indication of the trend, and the trend is still telling us we're in improvement mode, not in breakout mode, where job growth is surging.
Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
There's a huge hurricane hangover. I think the government will have to trip over itself to decide whether to have a huge downward revision to last month or whether the job losses will take a bigger hit this month.
This is a sign that the housing market is not exempt from the laws of gravity,
The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out that's what the data are showing.
We are not likely to see faster employment growth until the current growth trend in productivity slows significantly.
We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.
With all that as a backdrop, there are some real positive forces to stimulate growth.
That's not as great as 2003 earnings growth, but still positive.
The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out that's what the data are showing,
What it tells us is that we may see a bit of an easing off of economic growth or momentum. But even though the trajectory of growth may, in fact, ease a bit in 2006, I think the expansion remains intact.
There is not much growth behind the curtain when all is said and done.
This gives the Fed license to continue executing monetary policy. If they see any signs of slow growth in employment, industrial production, or retail sales, they certainly have the green light to make another cut. They have total flexibility to do whatever it takes to prevent a recession.
It's probably going to subtract 0.8 percent from gross domestic product growth this year.
I think they feel the inflation risks are inching higher, but I don't think they're inching so much higher to suggest we have a serious problem at hand,
The hope is that as the war issue is resolved over the next couple of days rather than weeks, we may see another bounce back in consumer activity.
The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.
There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.
Today's comments will go a long way to dispelling the idea that the Fed is in a rush to raise short-term interest rates.