Wage inflation works with a lag and is going to stay high. It's hard to get too bearish about the outlook for spending growth.
There's been a definite negative turn in sentiment toward the kiwi. This reflects all those macroeconomic factors that we thought would inevitably start to be a noose around its neck. The growth profile is weakening.
It's very hard to describe an economy with the lowest unemployment rate in the world as in recession.
The presumption that inflation will naturally recede to the middle of the target band seems a courageous one. Inflation is likely to be higher than many expect over the coming year or two.
There's no doubt that the turning point is more obvious now and the signs of a further slowdown are clear.
It's a real issue for the central bank when they are trying to keep the cash rate up, most of the forward pricing in the interest rate market tends to slip, and it's frustrating.
We think it's one of the best statements from the bank in a long time. It states the case pretty clearly. It's unequivocal.
The bank needs to be sure inflation will come down. This is not a time to be talking of easing policy.
Forget the interpretations of recession. We're still talking about a relatively stretched economy. There is no justification for the Reserve Bank to abandon the firm interest- rate outlook.
There is much on the horizon to support household incomes, which may well prevent the slowdown the Reserve Bank expects.