The numbers are continuing to signal strength in manufacturing. Inventories are lean, and so if anything, that's going to add to growth for the next several months.
This has important implications for overall growth.
There is certainly nothing from the core inflation numbers to egg the Fed on to keep tightening.
There are certainly going to be inflows, the question is at what price As time goes on, it will become a little more difficult to attract foreign funds. That's another way of saying the dollar will fall.
We expect the net result will be a report that looks neither especially strong nor weak.
The underlying trend in employment growth is pretty good. With the unemployment rate down to 5 percent and inflation expectations up over the last couple of months, we do see more acceleration in wages. For now the Fed will keep moving on its stated path.
At best, it's going to eat into their own sales. People are going out later, and you don't tend to drink Guinness late at night. It's hard to imagine something so similar to Guinness changing that.
It's certainly consistent with the idea that the upturn has ended.
It's certainly consistent with the idea that the upturn has ended, ... These numbers are so volatile that its hard to get caught up with one month too much.
We do not believe the apparent weakness in the fourth quarter represents a clear change in the trend.
It's not 100 percent clear where housing really is, ... But the weight of the evidence is that it's not as strong as this number on new home sales implies.
Frankly, the risk of a major pickup seems to have faded lately. We haven't gotten more action from energy prices.