This level of growth should lead to a further tightening of the labor market and that could power faster wage gains.
If spending holds up and job gains continue, even if they are nothing great, rates will likely not be reduced, ... If the labor market turns negative and households put away their wallets, the Fed will undoubtedly react.
The Fed wants to see results, and this report didn't give it to them, ... It looks right now as if the Fed will take out some extra insurance on June 25.
The glory days of surging productivity that kept labor costs down look to be behind us.
The glory days of surging productivity that kept labor costs down look to be behind us. The expected slowdown in productivity has arrived and that is putting pressure on costs and the Fed.
Productivity will be stronger in the first quarter, but the trend is still toward moderating growth this year.
We need more jobs. It is accurate to say that job growth has returned, but it is not at an acceptable level, ... We need over 200,000 a month to feel good about the sustainability of the expansion. That may be coming, but it is not here yet.
Given the condition of housing, Fed policy-makers will not panic if they see a low GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter,
Given the condition of housing, Fed policy-makers will not panic if they see a low GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter.
Housing added solidly to growth last year but don't expect that to be repeated this year.
The economic fundamentals seem to be lining up quite nicely, and they are all pointing to continued strong growth through the summer,
The data for the second quarter seem to point to a solid rebound in growth, ... That should generate improvement in profits, and hopefully the available funds will be spent on investment.
That holds out hope that production can be maintained.
Some people are being turned off by the high house prices and they just can't pull the trigger. Without question that's causing some people to think twice about buying.
With inflation this tame, the Fed will be in no hurry to raise rates,
Imports are creating some inflationary pressures but they don't appear to be that great.
Right now, spending is running at a roughly 1.5 percent pace and may not hit 2 percent for the quarter, ... But with income available, it would be surprising if consumption does not pick up.
The rate increases will start off slowly, but if inflation keeps accelerating, all bets are off afterward.
But if inflation does keep moving higher -- and right now, that is a real possibility -- the (Fed) is quite prepared to keep raising rates.
For me, core inflation is running at a moderate pace and is slowly accelerating. That is what I believe is driving the Fed to raise rates.
As far as inflation goes, this was as good as you could possibly get.
Any way you cut it, inflation was not well contained in March.
Housing is the one key sector that is supposed to be interest-rate sensitive, but at least so far, rates have not risen enough to cause a major retrenchment.
Businesses are toning down their expectations with investment and hiring this year.
The confidence of consumers is going to be related more to the issue of terrorism and war than to anything fundamental. If things turn, that'll turn confidence, and that'll stop the downslide very quickly.