The largest source that drove the very strong growth over the last year was this powerful replacement cycle, which is fading, ... The need to replace inventory is over.
Productivity growth is slowing and it is not strong enough to forestall rising labor costs and broader inflation.
The impact is going to be very significant -- it may shave as much as a half-percentage point from economic growth this year.
Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
If revenue growth does not start to pick up that would squeeze profit margins.
I suspect this is a pause and we still see a resumption of top line growth and, ultimately, better hiring in tech.
That's right where the Fed would like to see it, ... It would take a good year of that level of monthly growth before the job market tightens to the degree where inflation concerns would become more paramount.
This should be a year where the tech market stabilizes but I don't see job growth until 2004.
Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion.
Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.
If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.
The Fed is growing more uncomfortable about inflation, ... This is a more hawkish statement and signals that more tightening is on the way.
Inflation is still low and modest, but there are growing signs that it is starting to pick up.
If we get a string of bad data on inflation, the Fed will probably have to tighten for a bit longer.
Labor will start demanding bigger pay increases and will get them.
Bush will paint Kerry as being a tax-and-spend liberal and Kerry will paint bush as only providing tax cuts for the rich.
It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
It undermines growth at the same time that it fans inflation.
Greenspan should weigh against asset markets in the good times -- just as he works to support them in the difficult times. He's been one-sided in his policies,
Trade is far and away the largest weight on the U.S. economy at present. This is a risky time.
It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.
The data is going to look ugly in the next couple of months.
All these statistics reflect the full force of the hurricanes on the broader economy and we will probably have another month of ugly statistics.
I think what we are seeing with the bond yields is a byproduct of globalization. That being said, I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.