We've been assuming a first round victory for several months.
The main issue to watch is who is likely to emerge stronger and prevail in terms of overall influence and leadership in the region, be it Chavez or be it Bush.
Whenever Chavez feels threatened, he plays up the nationalist card. In the past seven years, whenever he feels that his message hasn't delivered the expected results, he uses the nationalism.
He is weighed down by this transformation over the years from a self-described revolutionary and former opponent of the dictatorship of the fifties to ... the darling of the middle class and intellectual elite of Venezuela.
A large majority of companies are willing to accept tighter terms. Venezuela has large untapped potential reserves and oil prices remain very high.
This sale is in line with Venezuela's efforts to modernize many of branches in its armed forces. Many of these purchases are designed to move away from equipment that was almost uniquely sourced to the U.S.
A lot of intellectuals, middle class and upper class, have been egging him on to run against Chavez. He is one of the few visible figures who has some clout, and he hasn't been afraid to challenge Chavez in the past.