Prices will come down on imports. There are lots coming our way.
We are up above 60 because of Iran. If something happened in Iran we would be in trouble because there isn't enough spare capacity to make up for the loss. If there was 3 or 6 million barrels of spare capacity there wouldn't be this kind of reaction.
The oil market has become the instrument used by the entire financial community as a hedge against geopolitical risk. The world's major trouble spots share one feature, they have energy supplies.
With oil prices this high I can't see OPEC cutting production. It's clear they won't change the quotas. Prices aren't going to fall a lot anytime soon.
After Christmas we had two crises. The problems in Nigeria had a short fuse and there was an immediate drop in shipments while the situation in Iran has a much longer fuse.
Growth is down from last year. The U.S. and China led demand growth last year but that's changing. The situation in China and has changed they are not using as much distillate fuel for power generation.