I think Kerry's dead because I don't think he has anything to say. Message has something to do with this, and I don't think he has anything interesting or compelling to say. He's a weak third in Iowa and a weak second in New Hampshire, and I think if you finish third in Iowa and a weak second in New Hampshire, you're through.
A large part of it is getting a sense from the candidates' point of view of whether or not they really want to do this. Lots of people want to be president, but they've got to figure out 'What do I have to offer that's going to make people want me to be president' It's not something people wake up with one morning crystallized in their head. A lot of it comes from being out there, talking to people, test-driving their message.