The release of crude and gas stocks from the IEA provided a good cover against the shortage expected after the hurricanes,
Oil may peak during the hurricane season in August or September. Economic growth will add to tightness in supply.
I believe the recovery of crude oil production in the Gulf area will take a long time, one month or even two.
Traders need to understand that the supply-demand situation is much tighter in fact, especially since U.S. Gulf of Mexico operations are still mostly down. Demand is still strong, and can only rise in coming months.
I don't think Iran will stop oil exports because of the money, but we have to wait and see for the IAEA meeting.
The market is quite weak as the U.S. starts receiving materials from abroad. I'm looking for oil to fall to 62.
(U.S. data) showed quite bearish numbers. Prices may fall rapidly to 56 unless we have cold weather.
(U.S. data) showed quite bearish numbers, ... Prices may fall rapidly to 56 unless we have cold weather.
The weather and the high crude inventory levels are the main factors weighing down prices. This trend should carry on until the end of the year, with prices to hold between 55-58.
It's still very difficult to tell what the situation in winter will be, but as soon as colder weather comes along, prices would definitely go up,
In that case, we'll be in the winter season already. If temperatures in winter time are lower than forecast, then that should be a big problem.
If winter is colder than expected then prices could rebound quite sharply.
It seems to be a very crazy market. People worry about gasoline and crude oil supply.
Traders are most concerned about the Iranian issue, as the situation appears to be getting worse.
It looks quite unlikely that Katrina would affect the Gulf of Mexico facilities, and that's what's bringing the price down now as people start to take profits.
The economy seems to have completely absorbed high oil prices and people will be looking for steady economic growth next year. People expect a drawdown in crude oil stocks so they don't want to be short over the New Year.
The Iranian situation isn't going away. There are dangerous comments coming out of Iran on their nuclear testing and that will keep oil high.
Supplies of crude oil and oil products are less than normal, which will bring a much tighter market in winter.
After some profit-taking, we are now waiting for the inventory data. But the Nigerian crisis remains a serious issue.
The Iranian nuclear issue is driving the market. Traders are short-covering because they know if something happens in Iran the market would be in confusion. The issue poses a threat of supply disruption in a major oil-producing country.
People don't like to take any position before Christmas. Most people are thinking prices will be sustained at this level for the time being.
Imports from IEA countries are almost completed. The demand-supply balance is a little tighter.
The pace of demand growth in China is something we are all watching, because it will have a greater effect on crude oil demand-supply balance at some stage.
Last week, there was an attack by terrorists in Saudi Arabia and that's why the market jumped, but the Saudi authorities were successful in foiling the attack so this calmed the market a bit, prompting traders to have a reason to sell.
People are just waiting for a chance to buy ahead of Christmas. At the US58 level, it's a good time to buy back.