Bill O'Grady

As heating-oil prices rise, that does give some support to natural gas.

If we don't get hit with another tropical storm in the Gulf, I think we have a good shot at seeing prices come off their highs.

The government has got to come up with a way in funding itself.

Crude oil is the least of our worries. There is ample supply in storage and the government will tap the SPR, because this is what it is there for. They released supply last year when Hurricane Ivan struck the region.

Overall, the report suggests that demand will recover this year, while supply growth won't be all that robust. Thus, the markets will likely remain tight.

This is the second week that imports dropped, which makes sense because we are choking on crude. We need another week of drops before I get too worried.

It comes down to how well refineries recovered from storm damage and how fast imports have grown. I am looking for an increase in refinery utilization but it should only be limited.

This is the worst commodities bear market I've ever experienced, even counting the downturn in the late 1980s ... It's not good. It really isn't and it doesn't look like there's any end in sight.

You never want to underestimate the impact the market has with these regulatory changes. Every time they do this, things get screwed up.

The drop in crude was a surprise and was a little supportive to prices, but the market was completely overwhelmed by the build in products. It's unusual at this time of year to see distillate fuels rise.

This time of year you should see draws in distillates. We got no builds in heating oil, but all you have to do is keep heating oil steady for the next three or four weeks and you're out of the woods.

The primary support factor today is the lift in crude. You also could be seeing more aggressive buying in heating oil.

The market is facing some seasonal pressure, but given the violence of the decline and the impending long weekend, I would not be shocked by a short-covering rally into the close.

It all comes down to the weather. Mild weather is keeping a lid on prices. When we finally get cold weather we may see things turn around.

The storm has moved over Florida, so we know for sure that it's not going to damage any energy facilities. The weather is still mild so heating demand has yet to pick up. The primary trend is still lower.

At this time of year it is all about the weather. This is a respite, but it won't last. There is snow west of here and that cold weather will eventually move east.

The big supply declines and colder weather will send us higher. We've probably seen the bottom and will rise from here.

Some of the medium range forecast models have been pointing to a return to colder weather. You're getting enough private forecasters making that call where it's starting to have an impact.

Natural gas is the real worry. Unfortunately we can't import the missing production. This is largely a domestic market.

Gasoline consumption fell. That suggests one of two things. First is the economy in worse shape than we thought or the high oil prices are starting to be affected by demand destruction.

More and more, drivers ask about mileage. A few years ago, nobody cared.

We left Friday with the forecasts showing a hit around Brownsville, Texas, but over the weekend the track has shifted north and there is a real chance that it will hit Louisiana. Another large storm hitting Louisiana would be unprecedented and disastrous. There have been years when more than one storm has hit but they were weaker.

It doesn't mean people will stop driving or demand goes down. But demand slows down.

If the Nigeria news was happening alone it would do nothing to the market, but together with the risk of Iranian sanctions it takes on a greater importance.

It's kind of the first good news that we've had on the economy all week. It's a good number. But the problem with the number is it's really not indicative of the national number. It's the East Coast that's really suffering.