David Kelly Quotes

This is a classic case of the labor market lagging. We're going to see weakness for another few months, but the pace of the growth of the economy is going to help the job market. We are busting out of recession here. This is not a mild rebound.

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Even if consumers pull back a bit, just rebuilding those inventories will add a lot of growth. We will see a shift to business spending from consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and when that occurs, it will be quite healthy.

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How you view the job market depends on perspective, and that perspective is very different across different industries, different regions and different income groups.

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There's clearly a lack of interest in investing while the economy works through these Katrina issues, ... We need to get a clearer sense of when gasoline prices are going to come back to normal. When I talk to retail investors, a lot are frozen by the level of uncertainty those issues create.

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Baby boomers are turning 60, and they're working to build up those nest eggs for retirement. For some that are running behind, that means putting at least some of that nest egg into more aggressive investments. For a while, that was real estate or high-yield bonds. Not anymore.

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Either in May or June, the Fed will have to raise interest rates.

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Sometimes at the top of the market, it's really just about people trying to make 22 equal 5. A lot of the biggest mergers conducted in the most optimistic circumstances don't enhance shareholder value that much. We don't want to see a repeat of that.

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Productivity can act as a natural thermostat for inflation and prevent it from becoming dangerously high or low.

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The single most significant number is the inventory number. The rebuilding of inventories hasn't even started yet. When they do, it will be a major source of additional stimulus to the economy.

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It's pretty tough if you run a retail business in Manhattan. I'm sure the guys on Fifth Ave will be feeling the pinch because of this to some extent.

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This is a slight move away from the Fed's completely balanced view of the world on inflation but I don't think they will accelerate the pace of tightening, ... There is a little more fear of inflation but the fact that the Fed kept measured tells me they are comfortable with the path they are on.

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The Fed knows darn well that higher oil prices increase the risks of a recession more than it does triggering massive inflation. If the price of oil suddenly crashed and consumer spending were to get better than the Fed might want to go to 4.25 percent but I think 4 percent is the magic number.

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One thing that's clear is that the Fed is determined to still seem balanced. The minutes will reflect a little more inflation concern and a little more concern about the economy but no deviation from the measured pace.

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Conway can take this information and integrate into an already exceptional heritage tourism program.

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This is actually a case where the numbers are where you want them to be. Inflation's about two percent, not going up or down -- this is the comfortable middle. The American economy has other problems, but this isn't one of them.

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A crucial issue is how fast the price of gasoline comes down, ... If you can get the price of gas down before Thanksgiving, that will give us a strong holiday shopping period, and that could help the market.

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to ease the transition to another Internet service provider.

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One of the biggest upward revisions was to investment spending on equipment, exactly the area we're worried about. That grew marginally, and that's the start of something.

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Outside those areas, there's just not enough money to get you there.

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We hope a review of these cases will jog the memory of the people.

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A lot of American businesses are still fighting the last recession as opposed to gearing up for the next expansion. That process could take a few months, so we could still see some ugly numbers from the labor market for another month or two.

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It generally takes a few months after GDP growth such as we saw in the third quarter before that turns into strong growth in employment.

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The unemployment rate will come down slowly because of tremendous productivity gains, but I don't doubt the strength of final demand.

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What generally happens is, during the first year of economic expansion, we see more productivity growth than job growth, and that changes as you go into the second year. We may be on the cusp of that.

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The economy is strong but not too strong. The right thing for the Fed to do is stay on track and raise rates 25 basis points. Any deviation from the measured pace is a mistake.

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