David Seiders Quotes

All the fundamentals remain in place, and the overall housing market continues to exhibit ongoing strength. Favorable mortgage rates, as well as strong household income and job growth, continue to bolster housing demand.

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It was impossible to maintain double-digit price inflation like we've seen the past few years.

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We're certainly seeing a record rate of return in real terms (after factoring out inflation), and there has been very little sign of deceleration. But it is probably inevitable that some of this will slow down.

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We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.

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The home-ownership rate has edged down a bit from its high in early 2004, and we're seeing more people moving into rental housing.

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The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.

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It is a time-tested pattern. February has essentially returned to normal conditions, suggesting to me that we will see a substantial decline in housing starts.

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When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.

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The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.

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We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.

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This is obviously exuberant behavior by builders.

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We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.

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It's healthy. We do need to have that happen -- gracefully, though. Affordability problems are glaring in the hottest areas. We've reached the point where something's really got to give.

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Winter weather really takes the sting out of these declines.

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We had unusually bad weather in many parts of the country in December, and the conditions in January were extraordinarily warm.

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The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.

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I do have this sort of weakening of the housing sector, but I think it should be thought of as a systematic cooling down process toward sustainable levels of activity and not viewed as kind of a classic housing downswing that's part of an economic cycle leading to a recession.

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As they generally have done throughout 2005, builders have maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.

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I basically have a wait-and-see attitude with some healthy suspicion about this report. Either there is something that all of those other reports are not telling us, or this will get revised.

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I am worried about the potential for a trailing down process that gains some momentum.

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I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.

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The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.

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Some softening of long-term interest rates since early December helped buoy builder attitudes. Consumer confidence has rebounded nicely from post-Katrina lows.

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The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process from unsustainable market conditions in 2005, rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time.

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There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 911.

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