Lara Rhame Quotes

This is yet another reminder that policy-makers don't have a lock on knowledge. There's a tremendous amount of confusion now about whether or not the recent weakness due to military anxiety is going to end up being self-reinforcing economic weakness.

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This is not a 'ripping off the Band-Aid' kind of situation, where you know how much the pain will be and that you'll be fine afterwards. We don't know how well the economy has healed. The Fed remains very concerned ... that they might overshoot and give the economy such a shock they'll have to cut rates again.

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A lot of people don't understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It's the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be seen how clearly that will translate into actual activity.

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Every time you see a number that shows prices decelerating, immediately you have to think of sluggish re-hiring. It means companies will still be closely guarding the bottom line and will be slow to add to labor.

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This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation...and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.

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This is undeniably good news. The crucial question going forward is going to be if the rise in confidence is reflected in more spending on the part of the consumer, or if it's simply a patriotic rally.

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They have clearly started to apply more pressure. They have singled out China and the rest of the emerging market economies.

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I'm not in the 'V-shaped' camp. I definitely think we're going to get recovery, but the trajectory of that growth is going to be really low.

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Business confidence remains very, very fragile, and we're still in an environment where businesses are more concerned with cutting costs than with ramping up investment projects.

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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count Syringes Patients At a bank, what's 'inventory' Palm Pilots Mortgages

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We saw the unemployment rate actually holding throughout most of this slowdown, and only about four months ago we were at a 4.5 percent unemployment rate. The average recession sees a lot of job losses, so we've got a lot of catching up to do.

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We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.

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We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U. S. recovery, but the speed our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.

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Oil prices are volatile enough that you can't focus on one day's move. But later in the year, a combination of robust global economic recovery and tension in the Middle East are really ingredients for a big spike in oil prices, and that can truly spell disaster for an economy.

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The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.

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This shows our big reliance on imports and foreign capital. As the dollar weakens, that becomes a more and more expensive habit. It makes our imports more expensive, makes the trade deficit wider, makes us even more dependent on foreign capital, weakening the dollar, on and on -- it's a vicious cycle.

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It's probably wise they cut before the opening bell. They wouldn't want to be seen as reacting to the stock market, but they are trying to show that they are willing to do what it takes to maintain confidence.

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We are seeing pretty solid export growth. You are starting to see the U.S. benefit from faster growth in Asia and the rest of the world.

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I still don't expect a double dip into recession, and I don't think the consumer will turn around and stop spending, but I do take that confidence number very seriously.

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We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.

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The trade number at best leaves the dollar where it was and at worst sparks a substantial dollar decline.

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Almost always the knee-jerk reaction in the markets to positive news on reforms is yen positive. People look at reform as being a positive thing for Japan, one day, hopefully.

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I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.

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If that's the way the world is, then that's fantastic, because if oil prices go down and the Iraq situation disappears, we're off to the races again. But I think that opinion is at worst naive and at best simply putting on a brave face.

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The weaker-than-expected housing number still leaves housing at a fairly high level of activity but will raise some eyebrows as markets worry about the (Federal Reserve) overshooting (with rate hikes).

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