Lyle Gramley Quotes

This time, we're starting with an inflation rate that's too low and heading lower, ... What that means is the Fed will sit still until such time as it sees inflation start turning up -- which might not happen until late 2004 or early 2005.

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Not only is he as mentally acute as the average 77-year-old, he's as acute as the average 27-year-old. He has a phenomenal mind and very good judgment, ... People close to the decision-making at the Fed are almost unanimously in great praise of him, as I would be. I think it's a wonderful thing for the Fed and for the country that he's being kept on.

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If you raise interest rates in the face of what you know will be some pretty awful economic numbers, you must have a lot of confidence about the economy's ultimate recovery and a lot of concern about inflation.

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He will make the point that, if tax breaks go through, they need to be accompanied by firm discipline on the spending side, ... He's not going to actively oppose Bush's proposals -- that would be uncharacteristic.

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My concern is not with a double-dip recession. It's with the likelihood we are gong to be in an extended period of growth below potential, and that would mean rising unemployment.

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It's entirely possible you could repeal tax cuts without injuring the economy if you did it carefully, over a period of time, while offsetting it in part by increasing expenditures you knew were coming anyway or thought desirable. But you couldn't simply remove the tax cuts altogether right away and avoid significant negative effects to the economy.

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I would interpret higher stock prices in two ways, ... It's an indication of improving confidence in the economy's recovery, and it increases the confidence and wealth of consumers, adding to consumer spending.

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I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition.

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I don't think there's any doubt they'll go to 5 percent in May. I expect them to sit still after that.

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I can't interpret this report as a weak economy, and I don't think the Fed will either. They are going to persist in moving interest rates up until they see greater indications than what we have now that either the economy is weakening, or inflation is getting under control, or both.

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Greenspan is not a guy likely to brag much, but he'll indicate the economy is still in good condition, that much of the recent bubbling up in inflation is likely to prove transitory, and that fundamentals of the economy are still quite strong despite some of the recent data.

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Crisis management has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage.

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The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'

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The bottom line is that their principal concern is that inflation might go lower, so we'll get the same kind of statement we got last time.

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There are a lot of worries circulating around about deflation, ... What the Fed is doing is saying we don't need to worry. If deflation happens, they will counter aggressively, and they have the tools to do so.

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Mortgage rates haven't been significantly lower than the rates we have today since the 1960s.

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His answer was an honest one -- I think the markets misinterpreted what I said.

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We still face a longer-range deficit problem and that will be exacerbated by increases in Medicare and Social Security payments, ... It would be helpful to bring our budget deficit down longer-term. I worry more about that than this temporary increase in the deficit.

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Anyone who sits at that table knows that if the Fed puts his head up in the midst of an election campaign when it's not necessary to do so, that would be a rather foolish thing to do. You don't want people shooting at you unnecessarily - you'd rather live to fight another day.

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He wondered what I was doing and what he might do. I replied that when he leaves government service he's worth an enormous amount of money.

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whoever they pick has a considerable degree of background and expertise on monetary policy.

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The apparent bubbling up of inflation we saw earlier in the year has quieted down again. Basically it's a picture of inflation staying reasonably tranquil. The Fed should like that.

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