Paul Kasriel Quotes

I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.

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The problem is that labor has basically priced itself out of the market. We had a very sharp run up in compensation costs in the late 1990s. People got too expensive and they're still too expensive.

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You can compare it to a corporation that issues stock and bonds and uses the money not for plant and equipment, but to throw a party for the employees.

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We should get a little better growth in the second half -- but not enough. By the end of the year, maybe we will have enough to stabilize the unemployment rate, but I think we will probably see a further drift up in the unemployment rate.

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It's almost become a random number.

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Housing has gotten very expensive relative to income.

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The creation of credit by the Fed, just like the scrip printed by a counterfeiter, does not result in the increased supply of energy.

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Since central banks aren't letting their currencies appreciate against the dollar, that implies that all the currencies will depreciate against gold and commodities in general.

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In 1987 we had a sharp increase in long-term interest rates and a stock market crash when there was a run on the dollar. While a lot of people think a weaker dollar is a good thing, it essentially makes us poorer and turns out not to be a good thing.

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If the Fed pauses here, rates will come down, the house ATM machine will get filled up again, and we can all go back and do more refinancing. But if they keep going, like some people believe they will, then we will have a recession in the second half of 2005.

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Rising bond yields would hurt the housing market. Unless incomes pick up to offset higher financing, you're going to have a problem.

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This is a warning signal ... that we are on recession watch now.

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And rates are not likely to be adjusting downward. Households are paying about 13.75 percent of their aggregate tax income to service debt -- and it is going to go higher.

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OPEC doesn't suffer from money illusion. It decided they want an honest dollar for an honest barrel of oil.

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When you print money, it's going to inflate some asset price. Maybe we'll revert to the late 1990s and buy stocks with it.

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At the intermediate and crude goods levels, we continue to see pipeline pressures toward higher inflation. Next month, I suspect we're not going to see the tobacco offset, but maybe it will be something else.

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We're a what's-my-monthly-payment nation. The idea is to have my monthly payments as high as I can take. If you cut interest rates, I'll get a bigger car.

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Economists are notoriously bad at predicting turning points. They're like credit ratings agencies, they don't anticipate things very well.

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The only reason they won't cut is because Alan Greenspan suggested he wasn't yet in the mood to cut, ... He's probably a Cubs fan as well -- they always say, 'Wait 'til next year.' In this case, Greenspan says, 'Wait 'til the second half.'

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The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy.

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What'll happen is you'll see bond yields spiking higher, the dollar spiking lower and the Fed then having to raise rates. At that time, housing will probably start to weaken, stocks won't do well, and our standard of living will go down.

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You're effectively lowering the cost of capital for corporations, and anything to lower that cost will help in inducing more plant and equipment spending.

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All the data suggest the labor market is improving -- perhaps not as fast everyone would hope and want, but it's better than deteriorating.

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Every time we think the bond market is acting irrationally, we usually find out a month or two later that it was rational, that some people participating in the bond market knew more than most of us economists did -- which is not really a great feat.

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Nothing seems to be going quite right. We're not seeing mass defections. The weather has been bad. Frustrations are starting to build that this might be going into a less antiseptic phase.

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