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 Ian Shepherdson - “The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condoco-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10 from their summer peak.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “To be sure, it would be premature to argue this is the start of a new, hyper-weak trend in home sales, ... Nonetheless, these numbers do send an unambiguous signal that the housing market is now past its peak.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike,”
 Ian Shepherdson - “He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “Given the extraordinarily weak chain store sales numbers in September, this report comes as a huge relief -- it could have been much worse.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “Things will likely get worse before they get better.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “Not pretty, and getting worse.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief,”
 Ian Shepherdson - “After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,”
 Ian Shepherdson - “This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,”
 Ian Shepherdson - “There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend of claims is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline in the number of claims.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “We expect a drop to 390,000 next week, but an even lower number cannot be ruled out.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “We expect a drop to 390,000 next week, but an even lower number cannot be ruled out,”
 Ian Shepherdson - “If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.”
 Ian Shepherdson - “The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,”
 Ian Shepherdson - “The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.”

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