Steven Wood Quotes

Higher interest rates have been weathered by home buyers through the use of adept home financing techniques. Nevertheless, the resilience in the housing sector will support further monetary tightening by the Fed.

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Although higher interest rates appear to have begun to have a negative impact on housing activity and consumer spending, sturdy domestic demand and improving international economies have generated an acceleration in manufacturing activity.

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While these data will be welcome by the (Fed), two key questions remain. Will the second quarter spending slow down extend through the rest of the year Economic fundamentals suggest they will. And will the spending slowdown be sufficient to relieve pressure on labor markets and inflation At this point, that is still an open question.

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The numbers are clearly good news for the Fed, ... Strong productivity numbers raise the economy's speed limit and dampen inflationary pressures, lessening the magnitude of the rate increases that the Fed would have to implement. The key question, however, is what level of productivity growth is reasonable to assume for the future

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Only lower interest rates are providing any support at the moment, ... The outlook is still worrisome.

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With a longer-term view, layoffs have accelerated, job creation has slowed, and joblessness has increased.

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Leading indicators of job creation were generally favorable.

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Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.

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The Fed will welcome this report as it suggests that slower economic growth will be extended into the third quarter. The probability of an August rate increase continues to diminish and is now below 50 percent.

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The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.

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Inventory building is slightly stronger in January and February than it was in 4Q, suggesting that inventory investment is likely to add modestly to Q1 GDP growth.

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Although mortgage rates have declined over the past three weeks, mortgage applications volumes have continued to fall. This is partially due to the flat yield curve and partially due to tighter lending standards by financial institutions.

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What they did imply was that future Fed actions will become even more data dependent, Further tightening cannot be ruled out.

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Although these data were better than expected, job creation is still weak.

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These data continue to show that the housing market remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. This resiliency will make it more difficult for the (Federal Open Market Committee) to slow the economy.

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New and continuing claims are at levels that historically have been associated with payroll employment gains of around 225,000. Labor markets are gradually improving.

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Higher claims suggest slower job gains, which should dampen income growth, consumer spending, and overall economic activity.

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This will help boost overall economic growth to above 4 percent our current (third-quarter) estimate is 4.5.

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The Fed will need to cut interest rates further.

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There is a clear improving trend in orders which provides support for the recovering manufacturing sector, ... Although some of the inventory building that occurred was likely Y2K related and will be reversed in the new year, the acceleration of both shipments and backlogs suggests that the manufacturing recovery has substantial staying power.

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While good gains in productivity are economically favorable, it is not a good situation when this occurs because labor input is declining more rapidly than output.

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These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth.

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This stronger consumer sentiment may yet translate into solid core consumer spending for the holiday season.

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Despite the loosening of the labor markets, income gains remain sufficient to support spending at a moderate pace.

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Momentum in the leading indicators has slowed over the past year, suggesting an impending slowdown in economic growth.

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