Wayne Ayers Quotes
If you look at the last jobless recovery, the Fed was on hold for a good, long time. When they did reverse course, the economy had produced 4 million jobs from the trough in the labor market. We're nowhere near that -- even with payroll data revisions, which I suspect will be on the tepid side, we won't be near that.
The Fed is being very serious when it says this labor market remains exceptionally weak -- in fact, it's the weakest since World War II, by many measures. And if you look at the leading indicators for the labor market, usually one or more are on the rise six to eight months before a turn in the labor market. Right now, none are on the rise.