anthony cordesman

Even if the constitution clearly wins acceptance by most Shiites and Kurds and some Sunnis, this is only the start of a process, not the end. Even the best outcome of the vote is the prelude to months and years of additional effort.

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If, as is certainly possible, the situation devolves down to civil war or separatism, then no amount of military action can really deal with the problem.

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In reality in this city, on a bipartisan basis, everybody always spins the facts to support the policy they advocate. There are no innocents, ... you better tell policy makers there was a really good case for war.

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The fact is this was a truly major failure in intelligence and analysis. But that does not mean that information was not manipulated or used to create a case for war that was much stronger than the assessments made before the conflict.

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I think the great problem we face here is also understanding just how serious anger is against us in the Islamic and Arab world, and the reasons that anger occurs. It is, unfortunately, our alliance with Israel. It is our presence in Iraq.... And if you look at polls of popular reactions in ... Islamic countries or countries with strong Islamic movements, you find a broad-based support for extremism.

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We did not plan three years ago to create more than token Iraqi forces. Now we're at 230,000 roughly and counting. Our whole strategy is dependent on the success of the Iraqi army and the Iraqi police.

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There's so much spin in these numbers. A lot of facts get disguised. . . . Total manpower is meaningless. The army is the key force in direct combat.

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You're watching the insurgents develop more sophisticated methods of attack, and more sophisticated IEDs. They're using shaped charges and anti-tank mines stacked together. They're using 500-pound bombs that can destroy any armored vehicle. They're using these so-called swarming attacks, firing several RPG rounds at one lightly armored vehicle.

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The Yemeni central government has done what it can, but it is very weak. It is not a matter of the government not trying. But there are limits to it can do.

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Whatever happens, both the campaign and the new government that will take over have to address the issue of federalism, have to address money, have to address national versus provincial versus local power which is different from provincialism and federalism. They have to address the role of religion in politics, the constitution forces the new government to do that. So what we're talking about is a period, which to put it mildly, is already troubled which will last through mid-December when the election occurs and then almost certainly is going to last another three months while a government takes over. And this is the reality whether people would like to spin this into a symbol of democracy or not.

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This is the first step to allow Iraq to have a unity government, but it's only a first step. The question is, will the new prime minister be capable of leading the country

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They have begun to realize that when you focus only on the U.S. it gives the impression that the U.S. doesn't care about Iraqis.

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We essentially used a bull to liberate a china shop.

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What you have is the insurgents are trying to block the formation of a coalition government and trying to cause a civil war. That means that a lot of these attacks now focus on Iraqi civilians.

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There is no clear or meaningful difference between insurgency and civil war, or between national terrorism and civil war for that matter.

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Much insurgent activity consists of bombings of soft civilian targets designed largely to provoke a more intense civil war or halt the development of an effective Iraqi government, rather than progress towards control at even the local level.

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What could tear things apart is a strong civil war.

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If they succeed in creating an inclusive structure in virtually any peaceful form, Iraq succeeds. If they fail, the U.S.-led coalition fails almost regardless of its military success and that of the new Iraqi forces, and Iraq will move towards division, paralysis, civil conflict andor a new strongman.

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We need to understand that this is a warning, ... Over the next few months we're going to see a referendum on a constitution that's going to trigger more debates on Shiite identity ... The idea that the constitution or referendum is going to clear this up is unrealistic.

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It's almost a creeping polarization of Iraq along ethnic and sectarian lines, We see a slow, steady loss of confidence, a growing process of distrust.

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People with antiwar views will see this as confirmation of all their conspiracy theories about the war. And that's at least partly because the government didn't get its facts straight.

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Having a country stay in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that effectively is proceeding to defy it doesn't necessarily strengthen the treaty.

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Serving soldiers develop a tremendous sense of obligation to their comrades, and are trained to see the mission through. They know the military and the risk, and they have already chosen to serve their country.

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will end in snatching defeat from the jaws of uncertainty.

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America and its allies face many risks and problems in Iraq, but it is all too easy to snatch defeat from the jaws of uncertainty.

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