david ader

The suspiciously absent real money buyers, that were expected to step in and buy as yields backed up, have finally emerged -- supporting our view that we are near a temporary floor.

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Today is about positions unwinding and we should not confuse price action with new, fundamental, information. When unwinds of magnitude take place, they have an endgame -- those positions will square andor strong hands will dominate.

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We deem this action representative of a market that has lost the flurry of last week's panic buying and instead is rethinking its view as to the near-term motivation of the Fed and the impact of Katrina.

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We're anxious fence-sitters. Yields are back to where we like them -- and we'll like them more if we see more buyers and improved price action.

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Corporate issuance will continue to be a major factor (in the Treasury market) in the weeks ahead with estimates ranging from 40 billion to 60 billion over the next month.

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Without the benefit of data or issuance, the impetus to extend those gains is limited.

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We've seen dip buying and think that's a precursor to larger commitment into supply.

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The suggestions provide framework of how to change our culture. We are going through semester plans and are trying to figure out how to use the suggestions.

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Given this is a swan song for Greenspan, I think it's going to be one more of these global topics. There will be very little if anything that will give us any insight into monetary policy.

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This is big news. People sort-of thought it was inevitable, but it's still come sooner than many expected.

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Without more critical information, people are not going to be willing to push it. I don't think the market has been short enough or bullish enough to push this rally further.

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These are ugly numbers for bonds. I have been calling for 10-year yields to move back above 4.6 percent.

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We are getting hit with an enormous amount of supply. That is having an exaggerated influence.

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The Fed will want several months to confirm that inflation risks have shifted lower and there are subtle phrases that suggest they're not really believers. Take core personal consumption expenditure inflation down to 1.5 and they'll sing a louder tune.

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