lawrence eagles

Describing the Saudi action as a totally shocking move ... The Saudis are stamping their authority on the world oil market, but at the expense of relations within the cartel and the Middle East.

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Saudi Arabia and even the hawks, like Iraq, are reluctant to see the price stay above 30. They won't leave this meeting without a new agreement on the mechanism for delivery of more oil.

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Whether OPEC chooses to make public the size of any output cut ahead of the ministerial meeting Nov. 14 is uncertain. But it may well choose to do so if prices remain weak.

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The DOE report suggests that more product (such as heating oil) may be available in the week ahead, ... Adding to this, the U.S. 6-to-10 day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures in much of the U.S. northeast.

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It is too early to blame the restart of Iraqi oil shipments for the gains (crude stocks), but implies that gains may be larger in the weeks ahead.

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The U.S. will respond to this attack in some fashion and there remains a small fear that it may lose some Middle Eastern support as a result.

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Demand is still strong within China but growth was exceptionally strong last year. That year-on-year growth is narrower is not a surprise.

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There are clear signs at the moment that we are starting to see the impact of high oil prices on demand -- and that's being seen in many regions.

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No one fundamental reason can explain this whopping fall, ... There is concern that demand, particularly from the airline industry, could fall. There are clear recessionary concerns.

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Another compromise could be in the offing. What we could see is (OPEC President and Venezuelan Oil Minister) Ali Rodriguez stepping down to take on the role.

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Compliance will improve from February levels, partly because the winter demand will not be there and also because of the fear that prices will slump if OPEC is not seen to be in firm control.

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While gasoline was clearly the main driving force behind the market on Friday, there is little doubt that the Middle East tension also provides some upside momentum for crude.

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There were a few signs overnight that, although clearly tensions are rising, there is a window of opportunity for some peace settlement over the next three days.

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The plan has been slammed by environmentalists and some commentators who regard the proposals as a handout to the oil industry.

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Indeed, even if OPEC is not bothered about helping America per say, economic considerations make a lower price as sensible option.

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As we go forward, geopolitical issues won't go away over night, but we wouldn't have got to oil at 60 plus without a lot of other factors.

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However in doing so it has also shown itself not to be a bastion of stability it had claimed, but a hawkish price-rigging organization.

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It's certainly having an effect on prices but it's more people preempting El Nino than anything else.

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Without any further word from Saudi Arabia about production, ... there is no reason to believe that we won't see prices move higher.

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El Nino is definitely developing into the strongest event we've had in a long time, possibly in this century.

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OPEC has a paranoia with oversupply, ... This weekend's meeting is likely to see OPEC agreeing to meet some time in January or February to discuss a cut in supply.

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Overall there is a general consensus in the market that prices are likely to head lower and that the break of the current range will be to the downside. However, we would note that the conditions for this to happen increased crude and product inventories and refinery restarts in particular are not yet in place and risks to the upside remain.

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