marshall acuff

It's not clear that the Fed is going to move in June. Perhaps, the Fed moves late summerearly fall, if even then. What is clear is that the economy's momentum, which was quite strong in the first quarter, is indeed slowing down It is also clear that profit momentum for the year is going to be slow.

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I expect the key is the Fed continues to tighten credit as we go forward. What this is going to mean for the profit picture is more critical for stocks.

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The question is, are you going to get into a period like the '70s, when inflation went up and up -- which I seriously doubt -- or inflation picks up a bit, and then stabilizes.

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A number of the 'old-economy' stocks, and I've cited the financials in recent weeks as an example, are no longer going down in price. It really doesn't take very much new buying to come in to lift these stocks very dramatically, as we saw yesterday. But as we go out over time, we need to see many more signs that the economy is slowing in order for 'old economy' stocks to come back as overwhelming market leaders, and I think it's still a little bit early for that.

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It feels uncomfortable. It is uneasy. We're not used to this situation in the market. But, after all, this is the much-awaited correction that many people have been looking for in recent years.

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All those people who were waxing so bullish early in the year are now finding out the reality, that growth is slowing.

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The market continues to be uncertain about the underlying leadership after many years of being used to the big-cap stocks leading. We're also somewhat nervous about the earnings.

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The reality is that as we enter the new year, the big caps continue to dominate the market as they have for almost two years now.

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The issue with technology is, it's -- by definition -- change. You can't just go to sleep and say I'm going to forget it for 20 years.

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The market is on inflation watch.

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I'm not sure that we're going to see the market run straight up as it seemed to be doing in the first quarter. There are going to be episodes when we feel better, as we do today, and there are going to be episodes like this whole week ago, when we feel uneasy.

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Clearly today the catalyst was the better-than-expected productivity report. All that feeds into the techs.

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You are seeing a broadening out of the market that we had not seen going from the 9,000 to 10,000 mark. This is a much more egalitarian market and that's a healthy development. It suggests a more sustainable market over time.

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Unfortunately, earnings growth expectations are still too high. We continue to learn about that.

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Now reality is beginning to sink in -- that Asia is basically a long-term workout. I really don't see much relief from Asia for quite a while. I think we'll get tired of hearing about Asia before the year is over, but it's really earnings that's key. It's growth that's really the issue.

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