matt bryden

This is what both governments wanted. Both parties seem to have confidence in the U.S. ability to deliver a solution.

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These tactics are so far backfiring, since UNMEE - rather than the border - is now the focus of international attention, and Eritrea is likely to be cast in the role of aggressor.

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What the region is looking for - and needs - is a power that guarantees stability through predictable behavior.

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Normally, fighting has been between the sub-clan militias and commercial militias over the last couple of years. But this is a cross-clan alliance, with significant business interest on both sides.

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There is a genuine threat, there is no doubt the networks are still present and they retain the capacity to strike again. On the other hand, much more is known about these groups, there has been an intelligence surge in the last few years, they are kept under pressure.

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If they try to dominate, then we're probably going to see little brushfire rebellions breaking out in parts of Ethiopia, not at a national level, but as a voice of protest at the continuing hold on power of the EPRDF.

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There has been an investment in border controls, the computerization of immigration information and the upgrading of security forces. The sharing of intelligence among countries in the region has been stepped up considerably.

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It is the most inclusive institution in the government and the one that enjoys the greatest legitimacy.

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