melissa eisenstat

In this age of the Internet, with vendor alliances being formed and customer purchase decisions being made, it appears Microsoft has fallen behind in establishing its position in these emerging markets. Or, if it has, it's the best kept secret in the technology industry.

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With the Department of Justice process out of the limelight now, investor attention has been squarely focused on Microsoft's business fundamentals over the past several months. During that time there has been a significant degree of doubt about Microsoft's long-term prospects and, more pointedly, about the success of Windows 2000 and the Internet. We think this quarter's results go at least part of the way to alleviating these concerns.

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With Windows 2000 revenues not really kicking in until 2001 and the continued weakness of the business PC sales impacting Microsoft's core business, we expect the fourth quarter to be lackluster, coming in slightly above the third quarter.

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What we do see as key are Microsoft's improving business fundamentals, specifically ... Windows 2000 and the Internet.

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Noting that this management team has a long history together, we think it will be business as usual for the foreseeable future.

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The slowdown in consumer PC sales could not have come at a worse time for Microsoft. The December quarter is seasonally the heaviest period of consumer buying because of Christmas.

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We regard Microsoft's loss to be a foregone conclusion, which subjects it to damages that will likely be undetermined for a period of months. We also believe the issuing of the conclusions of law opens Microsoft to a flood of civil lawsuits seeking monetary damages.

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Although Siebel is paying a hefty premium for this small company, its large market cap should enable it to absorb this acquisition with modest dilution this year and none next year.

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Although the news is certainly not a positive, we do not believe it is a 'death blow' either.

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Bloom's exit coming at the heels of COO Ray Lane's departure leaves only Ellison with the kind of universal clout to call on senior executives at Fortune 500 companies to deliver Oracle's suite message. We think that the leadership question increases the risk to the story.

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We believe that Oracle's management backed itself into a corner by using the economy as their sole explanation for their shortfall.

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Because of the uncertainties and the risks to our earnings model should any behavioral remedies be implemented, we continue to advise investors to stay on the sidelines until further clarity can be gained.

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We believe that Windows 2000 will ultimately be a widely adopted corporate computing platform over the next two years, and we remain bullish on Microsoft's prospects.

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Investors should view both the DOJ's and Microsoft's remedy proposals as the two end points in the spectrum of possible outcomes. However, given Judge Jackson's negative stance toward Microsoft throughout the entire legal proceeding, we suspect that the remedy judgment will more closely align with the government's proposal than Microsoft's version.

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