philip baggaley

As you shrink an airline, you also reduce your revenue- generating ability. Obviously, they'll try to shrink the unprofitable markets.

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The recent surge in fuel prices and Delta's disclosure that it will have to post 750 million dollars of cash collateral to extend its credit card processing agreement indicate that the airline's already slim chances of avoiding bankruptcy are dwindling rapidly.

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The pilots are the last major labor group to reach a preliminary agreement (except for striking mechanics who have been replaced) and the largest source of labor savings being sought by the airline.

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Airline mergers are very difficult. They require a lot of cooperation from labor, management attention and financing. All those things are in short supply when you're just struggling to survive.

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The main benefit will be to corporations and small businesses. It's a significant consumer benefit but not necessarily to your average person in the street who is planning on taking a vacation.

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During the recent downturn, the legacy carriers have gradually used up their financial cushion of aircraft and other assets they can borrow against. If they are forced to face a new crisis, they may fail more quickly than they have in the past.

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A bankrupt airline is anxious not to lose customers, especially business travelers, and may be wary of cutting service below competitors' levels for fear of confirming passenger suspicions that the company is not long for this world.

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They are another example of a company that started out in a relatively stronger financial position than their peers, and they felt they were in better position to survive a shakeout. They didn't pursue cost-cutting as aggressively as they would have if they were heading toward bankruptcy early in the (industry's) downturn.

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That is high, particularly for an investment-grade company.

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In addition, such an outcome would encourage other employee groups to join unions to improve their bargaining position in future contract talks.

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Usually, one would see a ratio of less than 50 percent for industrial and transportation companies however, that's the peak and from there, it should decline as they use free cash flow to pay down debt.

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The revenue picture has improved and this is a huge change. The big swing factor is the long-awaited improvement in pricing.

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I would expect, eventually, they will have to terminate the pension plan.

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The external environment is still very difficult, and we expect that they're likely to report a loss this year.

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A situation where you have United, Delta and Northwest all in bankruptcy does make it easier to think about further consolidation.

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I think it's entirely possible they'll use the grace period (on the bonds) if they haven't heard from the ATSB by Monday. However (the end of the grace period on) Dec. 16 may be more of a make or break deadline.

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Maintenance work is often outsourced, especially at the low-cost carriers. I think it weakens labor's hand generally, but I wouldn't extend this to all other types of labor negotiations. American found out a number of years ago they couldn't fly through a flight attendant strike.

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Northwest has been losing a fair amount of money for a while now. I expect they feel they need to move forward quickly on these cost savings given where fuel prices are and going into the weak winter season.

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An airline doesn't wait till it's down to its last dollar to file. It'll be difficult to keep dragging it out. Without new financing, from a purely cash perspective, they are already in trouble to be assured they can reorganize in bankruptcy.

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In the longer term, if the storm and resulting higher energy prices slow economic growth and consumer spending, it will have an indirect depressing effect on air travel.

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Northwest ran out of time.

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We did that based on how much they need to accomplish in less than two months with their other labor groups. This strike stretches out the likely time frame with the others unions at least a bit.

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It won't take much of a switch to change the result, ... There's also the precedent of the other labor groups approving it, including the mechanics, who were thought to be toughest sell. I don't think even those who voted against it are eager to go into bankruptcy.

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Those three factors, pension, labor and fuel prices, will likely be the major consideration as they come up to Oct. 17.

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Those three factors, pension, labor and fuel prices, likely were the major considerations.

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