richard dekaser

The apparent influence of White House economists has been quite small throughout the Bush administration, which hasn't changed much of late.

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Look at the two months together, average them out, what we still get is a fairly healthy picture of the consumer coming out of the fourth-quarter doldrums.

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slow, drawn-out affairs, taking an average of three years to play out.

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Taking it at face value, the hurricane played a big role in contributing to the weakness. Consumer spending was abysmal in October and November. It's an extremely weak report overall.

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There are not a lot of surprises here. We knew February will be a down month in spending after a torrid January due to mild weather. This is exactly what we got.

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This reflects the healthy expansion we saw in April, and it's consistent with what we're hearing from businesses. Not only was there improvement in orders, but there appears to be momentum in business sentiment across the board.

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I think it's indisputable that demand in the housing market has declined in the past few months. It's very clear that rising interest rates figure very large in that decline.

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January marked an end to the economic concern caused by the hurricanes ... and the related increase in oil prices.

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On the whole this will assuage some of the concern that's been bubbling up about inflation since the start of the year and should keep the Fed on its measured path for now.

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The credit markets have been very useful guides to industry prospects. Whatever reassuring signals they are sending shouldn't be ignored.

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I think the market is responding now to a perception of the increased possibility of recession, which I do not see.

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For the U.S. as a whole, I expect we're going to have an orderly correction. But that doesn't mean it's going to be equally orderly in all places.

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This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.

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It's still a welcome number. It showed sustained labor conditions outside of the areas impacted by the two hurricanes.

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If we see economic indicators continue to weaken at the pace they have weakened in the past month, then I'm wrong. We could not only see mortgage rates continue to soften, but hold at lower levels for quite a substantial period -- maybe the first half of next year. But I don't think that's likely to happen.

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Consumers continue to persevere in a difficult environment in light of high oil prices. With prior revisions and trade (data) this is going to push Q3 GDP estimates closer to 4.0 percent.

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When demand shifts, it often takes time for supply side to get in sync ... I would still expect some softening is likely in the cards in the Dayton area as we go through this year.

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What the shock might be next time is unpredictable.

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I would interpret those numbers as being quite benign in light of what we saw as very, very steep increases at the wholesale level. Very little of that wholesale price increase has leaked through to the consumer price level. That's testament to the pricing pressure across America at the retail level.

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This is a very favorable report. In the context of what we've seen in the recent past, the Fed is right to say that inflation has been quiescent. It gives them more latitude to forestall an inevitable rate hike.

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It is a little concerning. The implication here is that over-valuation is becoming more prevalent. There is no disputing that price increases are far outstripping income gains.

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