whit ayres

Not only is it not unusual for a president to have an approval rating at 38 percent, it's almost predictable. Every president has rough patches, it says nothing about the ultimate historical judgment.

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Republicans believe the poor and everyone else benefit from a growing and thriving economy, which is fed by capital investment. Democrats believe that the poor are best served by larger and larger government payments. The Republicans have won that clash of ideas fairly consistently since Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980. There's no reason to think they can't win that same argument again.

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This gains him an increasing amount of attention as an authentic voice for social conservatives.

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This is just a screw-up. I think the base will, after some initial bluster, give him the benefit of the doubt, once they have the facts.

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First, there's general concern about globalization and its effect on American manufacturing jobs. We see low unemployment, but the headlines are dominated by the thousands being laid off by General Motors and Ford.

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It's a combination of weariness over Iraq, concern about gas prices, worry about jobs being sent overseas and other factors that lead people to be in a funk. When people are in a funk, they take it out on the guy in charge, regardless of whether he's responsible or not.

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If Iraq adopts and ratifies a constitution and elects a government, it will have a significant positive effect on public opinion and on people's willingness to sustain casualties and support the war. But if events on the ground devolve into less desirable conditions, popular support is likely to wane.

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By any measure, Conrad Burns is in deep trouble in his efforts to win re-election.

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She keeps showing up at the top of the polls because she is an extraordinarily able woman who would completely scramble the normal Republican vs. Democrat electoral dynamics.

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Just as a number of factors drove the polls down, several different factors are driving them up. The more specific and more measured discussion of Iraq is a factor, the continuing good news on the economy is a factor, and declining gas prices is a factor.

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There's obviously a lot of confusion at the start of any major new program, but the real test will come in 9 or 10 months when seniors have made the selection of a plan and some of the initial kinks have been worked out.

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Bad news tends to move in bunches, and this White House has had more than its share. When you are in one of these periods, the best thing is to keep your head down, stay focused on the job and wait for your luck to change.

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People on either extreme would not be thrilled. But the vast majority would be extremely pleased if the president could find another Judge Roberts out there. Somebody of superb and unquestioned legal qualifications, devoted more to the law than promoting a particular agenda.

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History suggests that all presidents go through times like this. For presidents, it is not a matter of if you will run into a period like this. It is how you react to them.

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Most people have made up their minds about him one way or the other, but there's still a persuadable group in the middle who can be convinced that he's doing a good job, who are not at this point convinced.

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It's hard to spin this as anything other than another problem dropped on the pile of troubles our side faces now. Bad news tends to come in bunches, and we've had a bunch lately.

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This issue has reached critical mass. People are demanding that something be done.

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The David Souter example - and to a lesser extent Anthony Kennedy - have made conservatives exceedingly skeptical of any urge to just 'trust me,'

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A lot of it depends upon how the program evolves over the next few months. Every major program is going to have growing pains. That's almost inevitable. The real question is not what seniors think of the program today as much as what they think of it at the end of the enrollment period.

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Well before this happened, I was glad the '06 elections weren't being held this summer. The country's in a funk, and it was in a funk before Katrina. But there's a great deal of time for that mood to change.

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to elevate Roberts, Ayres said. ''It makes a whole lot of sense to switch Judge Roberts over to the chief justice position.

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