william dunkelberg

Shopping action must have been heavy, as the frequency of reported sales gains jumped way up in November, to the third-highest level in all of '98.

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I won't say 'deflation,' but price paring was widespread. It reached far beyond manufacturing and agriculture.

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to have taken the attack personally, posting widespread reductions in expected real sales gains over the next three months.

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The small business sector is clearly slowing, but there are no signs of 'disorder' in the exiting, ... This is good news for the Fed, which expressed its pleasure by hinting at rate cuts if things slowed too quickly.

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Main Street optimism has backed down from the mountain top and is resting on a high plateau. The general view is that things have been going well for so long, they're bound to ease back a bit. Small-business owners aren't painting a doom-and-gloom scenario here. They just sense that the red-hot economy will cool by a degree or two.

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Small business owners are raising wages to keep the people already on board and to make open positions more attractive. With many small firms struggling to fill job slots, it's natural to see expansion plans being put on hold.

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Credit costs more but is no harder to get. And because interest costs are not particularly large for most firms, there are few complaints.

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A net 17 percent of small employers plan to increase employment in the next three months, indicating that this year could be a fairly good period for manufacturing if the economy holds and the dollar weakens.

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The 'tone' is terrific but the dollars haven't caught up with the music.

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While three points shy of the record set in December, that's still a very strong number.

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Historically, except for the dot-com hiring binge, this is a very solid number.

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It does not get much better (except in the crazy dot.com years).

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The index suggests that the consensus economic forecasts predicting slower growth for the first half of 1999 will be wrong again. We look for growth in Gross Domestic Product to keep running above 3 percent until at least mid-year.

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Consumers have not become timid, capital spending is double digit, and the government is spending more.

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Capital spending (actual and planned) got healthier and one in five owners views the current period as a good time to expand, strong for this period in the cycle.

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While hiring plans have softened since last year, labor markets remain extremely tight.

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By historical standards, that's a good rate, but we're used to 5 and 6 (percent growth) now, so it's going to feel bad. Perspective gets skewed by prosperity.

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